China’s modestly lower growth target of 4.5-5% for 2026, follows three years of steady growth around 5%, and is a reminder that the economy has been in a managed slowdown since 2010. Even as Beijing has focused on finding new drivers of growth, a shrinking working age population and diminishing returns on investments have limited China’s potential growth.
These constraints could become even more binding in the second half of this century, according to a set of long‑term scenarios from the OECD published late last year. These suggest that India may become the world’s largest economy by 2060 and that China could eventually end up as the third largest.
Priyanka Kishore speaks with the East Asian Institute’s Bert Hofman and Artha Global’s Niranjan Rajadhyaksha about how the trajectories of the two Asian giants may evolve, and what it will take for these outcomes to materialise in the very long run.
Resources :
China’s 15th Five Year Plan, translated by Claude, checked by ChatGPT, prompted by Bert, March 2026
Bert’s Newsletter, “China as number 3?”, January 2026
Artha Global report, Niranjan et. al. ‘The Road to Viksit Bharat @ 2047’, December 2024
